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      ],
      "xlabel": "Correlation; each variance = 1",
      "ylabel": "Aggregate error variance",
      "logx": false,
      "logy": false
    }
  ],
  "title": "Marginal scoring does not determine joint risk",
  "assumptions": "Analytical Gaussian forecasts for y=0; two zero-mean errors each variance 1. No weather output, grid or power-system data.",
  "worked": "无偏单位高斯在y=0时CRPS=(sqrt(2)-1)/sqrt(pi)≈0.233695；rho=-0.5与0.8时总方差为1与3.6；50独立成员漏见1%事件概率约0.605006。",
  "checks": {
    "normal_crps_y0": 0.23369497725510915,
    "miss_1pct_M50": 0.6050060671375364
  },
  "generator_source_sha256": {
    "ops/datacenter/editorial_guides/science_figures.py": "01890ea429a67a880650c9b0602b1b66ed6ddeaa9704b7224897857a5f4803d7",
    "ops/datacenter/editorial_guides/deep_figures.py": "158969d9b1f5a4bd13906cf78dd71affc2692df9194593918059d861a6f59c85"
  },
  "source_ids": [
    "gencast",
    "graphcast",
    "weatherbench2"
  ],
  "formula_source": "Article equations and this versioned script",
  "diagram_nodes": [
    "冻结起报与观测",
    "概率轨迹集合",
    "边际校准与锐度",
    "联合结构与聚合",
    "事件 / 时效 / 决策",
    "时间块比较与复现"
  ]
}